A Peak in 2021 Q4? Business Cycle Indicators at the Beginning of August

If one took GDP as the determinant of NBER determined business cycles, this is what the picture would look like (normalizing on mid-Q4):

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (bold dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 8/1 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), official GDP, 2022Q2 advance (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (8/1/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.

The six plotted series are those focused on by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, in addition to official BEA GDP, and IHS Markit’s monthly GDP (not currently on the list). Of the key six, nonfarm payroll employment (black) and personal income ex-transfers are given more weight.


This entry was posted on by Menzie Chinn.