Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2022 07:00:00 AM

Note: This was before the recent surge in 3-year mortgage rates to over 6%.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 6.6 percent from one
week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending June 10, 2022. Last week’s results are compared to the prior
week, which included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.

… The Refinance Index increased 4 percent from the previous
week and was 76 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase
Index increased 8 percent from one week earlier
. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 18 percent
compared with the previous week and was 16 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased for all loan types, with the 30-year fixed rate last week jumping 25 basis points
to 5.65 percent – the highest level since 2008. Mortgage rates followed Treasury yields up in response to
higher-than-expected inflation and anticipation that the Federal Reserve will need to raise rates at a faster
pace,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Despite
the increase in rates, application activity rebounded following the Memorial Day holiday week but
remained 0.29 percent below pre-holiday levels. With mortgage rates well above 5 percent, refinance
activity continues to run more than 70 percent lower than last year.”

Added Kan, “Purchase applications were down more than 15 percent compared to last year, as ongoing
inventory shortages and affordability challenges have cooled demand, coinciding with the rapid jump in
mortgage rates.”

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances
($647,200 or less) increased to 5.65 percent
from 5.40 percent, with points increasing to 0.71 from 0.60
(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.

The refinance index is just above the lowest level since the year 2000.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index


Mortgage Purchase Index
According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 16% year-over-year unadjusted.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).