Our tipster Jones Knows is getting creative and is combining three short fancies into a 3/1 treble for Wednesday’s action. Watch every race live on Sky Sports Racing.
Saffron Beach is fast becoming the biggest lay of the meeting judged on the way her price has shortened in the past few days in the Duke Of Cambridgeshire Stakes (4.20). All I can see in her make-up for the race is negatives, negatives, negatives.
Firstly, she’s carrying a Group One penalty in this, something 11 horses have tried in the past to defy, and all have failed, with only one making the frame.
She also possesses the completely wrong running style of being a prominent racer for the straight track over a mile at Ascot. Hold-up horses relish this test, especially in this race where 13 of the last 17 winners have been held up for winning runs. Plus, she has finished behind rival Mother Earth on both occasions when there has been “firm” in the going description. On her first run of the season, she is so vulnerable against some quality opposition here.
So, she should be taken on in a race ripe for an each-way play as just eight run. You also have the security of getting your stakes back up to £10 if your horse finishes second or third, courtesy of Sky Bet. I found it hard to nail my colours to just one horse in opposition but if you fancy one against Saffron Beach, fill your boots, would be my advice.
Whether Maria Branwell has the dash to live with the two market leaders, Love Reigns and Dramatised, who are both lightning-fast does temper my enthusiasm for a win bet on the David O’Meara filly in the Queen Mary (2.30) but nothing will be finishing stronger than her at the line judged on her performance at Sandown.
She somehow managed to collar the well-backed Crispy Cat in the dying strides showing an attitude that makes me want to be her punting friend. The added extra experience she brings to the party also stands her in good stead of running a sound race with 17 of the last 24 winners of this contest having had two or more runs before winning this. A set of results that outperforms the market expectation to those with just one run to their name.
With Sky Bet offering up seven places on the place market, the 5/6 for her to be in the first seven certainly is worth a serious look as that probability chance of 54 per cent seriously underestimates her place chance. I’d have it closer to 70 per cent.
Talking of horses with a fine attitude, Nahanni is all set to run well in the Queen’s Vase (3.05).
He lost all chance early on in the Derby but powered home in the final two furlongs to finish a staying-on seventh. Many will deem that run at Epsom as a negative as it is a short turnaround but horses backing up from either the Oaks or the Derby to a Royal Ascot race have a win and place strike rate of almost 40 per cent which gives me confidence the hardy Charlie Appleby horse will run his race.
I wouldn’t put anyone off having an each-way play with Sky Bet paying five places but Eldar Eldarov has a stack of potential for Roger Varian and is feared. That means my angle is to take the safe route and back Nahanni to finish in the first five.
3pts treble on: Marina Branwell to finish top seven, Nahanni to finish top five & Saffron Beach not to win the Duke Of Cambridgeshire Stakes (3/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)