Comparing the Current Housing Market to the 1978 to 1982 period

by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2022 11:34:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Comparing the Current Housing Market to the 1978 to 1982 period

A brief excerpt:

In the 1978 to 1982 period, demographics were very favorable for homebuying as the baby boomers moved into the first-time homebuying age group (similar to the millennials now).

This graph shows the longer-term trend for three key age groups: 20 to 29, 25 to 34, and 30 to 39 (the groups overlap). This graph is from 1960 to 2060 (all data from Census: current to 2060 is projected).

We can see the surge in the 20 to 29 age group last decade (red). Once this group exceeded the peak in earlier periods, there was an increase in apartment construction. This age group peaked in 2018 / 2019 (until the 2030s), and the 25 to 34 age group (orange, dashed) will peak around 2023.

For buying, the 30 to 39 age group (blue) is important. The population in this age group is increasing and will increase further over this decade.

When we look back at the 1978 to 1982 period, the 30 to 39 age group (blue) was increasing even more than today.

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