More on China Q3 GDP

BOFIT calculations (based on Kerola (2019)) indicate a slower pace of growth than officially reported. Year-on-Year, the simple average of alternative calculations is less than 4%, compared to the 4.9% officially reported (which is at the top of the range of growth rates from the alternative calculations).

Source: BOFIT.

Interestingly, the Q2 gap is not as large as that reported by Fernald et al. as discussed in this post: 3.9% vs. 6.3%. The Fernald et al. approach places greater weight on trade data than does the various approaches adopted by Kerola (2019), so there is no particular reason for the estimates to match.



This entry was posted on by Menzie Chinn.

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