Business Cycle Indicators on the Eve of the January Employment Situation Release

SPGMI monthly GDP m/m growth for December shoots up at an annualized 12.2%, after 9.8% in November.

Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating preliminary benchmark (bold dark blue), implied level using Bloomberg consensus as of 2/1 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, 3rd release (blue bars), GDPNow for 2024Q1 as of 2/1 (lilac box), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS preliminary benchmark, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q3 2nd release incorporating comprehensive revisions, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (2/1/2024 release), and author’s calculations.


Monthly GDP rose 1.0% in December following 0.8% growth in November that was revised higher by 0.6 percentage point. The robust December gain was mostly accounted for by solid growth of personal consumption expenditures, a large increase in the pace of nonfarm inventory-building, and an increase in net exports.

Final sales grew at 7.0% and 7.9% in November and December (m/m AR).

This entry was posted on by Menzie Chinn.

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