by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2023 05:33:00 PM
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 21, 2023
• Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 2.0%. For 18 straight weeks, the number of homes available for sale has registered below that of the previous year. … The number of for-sale homes registered 45.1% below typical pre-pandemic levels in September.
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 1.0% from one year ago. Since mid-2022, new listings have registered lower than prior year levels, as the mortgage-rate lock-in effect freezes homeowners with low-rate existing mortgages in place. Although the year over year declines are smaller now than the double-digit pace seen earlier in 2023, declines from the pre-pandemic period are still substantial.
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com.
Inventory was down 2.0% year-over-year – this was the eighteenth consecutive week with a YoY decrease following 58 consecutive weeks with a YoY increase in inventory.
The YoY decline in inventory has generally been getting smaller recently but might stay down YoY for the remainder of 2023 since inventory was increasing late into the year last year. However, I expect inventory to be up YoY soon – but still historically very low.
New listings really collapsed a year ago, so the YoY comparison for new listings is easier now – and although new listings remain historically very low, new listings will likely be up YoY soon.